Record External Surplus: 3.3% of GDP in 2024

The Portuguese economy continues to show signs of resilience, achieving an external surplus of €9.3 billion in 2024, equivalent to 3.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This figure represents the highest ratio since 1953, demonstrating the country´s increasing ability to generate wealth through external trade, particularly in the services sector.

The positive performance was driven by the goods and services balance, which posted a surplus of €6.7 billion, corresponding to 2.3% of GDP. The standout factor was the services balance, with a surplus of €31.91 billion, significantly offsetting the goods balance deficit, which stood at €25.26 billion. These figures reflect the competitiveness of the Portuguese economy in the tertiary sector, particularly in tourism and transport.

An analysis of data from the Bank of Portugal reveals that the overall deficit of the economy, in absolute terms, remained stable compared to 2023, but its percentage of GDP declined from 9.5% to 8.9% in 2024. This improvement was supported by export growth (1.9%) outpacing import growth (1.4%), reinforcing the importance of the internationalisation of the Portuguese economy as a driver of sustainable growth.

The services sector played a decisive role in increasing the external surplus. The positive balance of the services account grew by €2.7 billion compared to 2023, reflecting export growth of 8.1%, surpassing the increase in imports (6.8%). Tourism, traditionally a pillar of the Portuguese economy, was one of the main drivers of this trend, generating revenue of €27.65 billion. The travel and tourism balance recorded a surplus of €20.92 billion, the highest in the historical series, with an increase of €1.8 billion compared to the previous year.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany were the most significant markets for Portuguese tourism revenue, contributing €4.1 billion, €3.2 billion, and €3.1 billion, respectively. These figures reinforce the importance of international tourism in driving the Portuguese economy and generating surpluses in the services balance.

Beyond tourism, other sectors also made a significant contribution to Portugal’s positive economic performance. The transport sector generated revenue of €10.5 billion, while services provided by businesses totalled €10.08 billion in exports. These segments continue to grow, strengthening Portugal´s position as a key player in global trade in services.

Regarding the primary income balance, the deficit decreased by €2 billion, standing at €4.98 billion. Meanwhile, the surplus in the secondary income balance saw a slight decline of €15 million, settling at €4.47 billion. In this context, remittances from Portuguese emigrants remained a stabilising factor, with the most significant inflows coming from Switzerland (€1.135 billion), France (€1.109 billion), and the United Kingdom (€719 million), representing more than two-thirds of total remittances.

The capital account balance recorded a decline of around €600 million, attributed to a lower allocation of European funds for investment. However, the financial account balance reached €9.66 billion, an increase of 71% compared to the previous year, demonstrating a strengthening of the country’s financial position.

Portugal’s economic performance in 2024 reflects sustained growth based on the expansion of service exports and increased external competitiveness. The strengthening of the tourism and business services sectors has led to a record external surplus, consolidating the positive trajectory of the Portuguese economy and its strategic positioning in the global market.

Source: SUPERCASA